Trump suggests that he wants ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Is it possible? | Israeli conflict news

Washington, DC, The scenes of joy and destroyed tears are revealed through the Gaza Strip, where hundreds of thousands of people displaced back to their homes in the northern region.

The brittle ceasefire after 15 months of the war in Gaza has made the return possible. But with the inhalation of rights advocates, he called a rare president of reverse displacement in Palestinian history, and US President Donald Trump called for the entire population of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.

“You are talking about perhaps a million and a half,” Trump told reporters. “We just clean this whole and say:” You know, it is over. “

Analysts say that Trump’s proposal will be an ethnic cleansing, but it is unlikely to be achieved, given the geopolitical facts in the region.

Youssef Monayer, head of the Palestine/Israel program at the Arab Center in Washington, DC, said that the “outrageous” Trump statement should be condemned for violating all basic rules and rights.

He added, however, it should also be taken with a degree of doubt.

“Trump says all kinds of things,” Monayer explained. “Sometimes, they are things that mean. Sometimes, they are things that do not concern them. Sometimes, they are things he heard in a conversation he had five minutes ago. Sometimes, they are things he believed to hear but misunderstand them.”

Monayer said that the idea of ​​ethnicity of Gaza is not new and that it has been going on since the outbreak of the war in October 2023.

However, talks about the displacement of the Palestinians to Egypt, the only Arab country that borders the region, was quickly closed by Cairo. Jordan, which is located next to the occupied West Bank, also rejected mass displacement.

Both countries repeated their sites after Trump’s recent comments.

“This is not only related to what these countries feel towards Palestine or what they are thinking about the Israeli -Palestinian issue,” Monayer said.

“It is also related to their national security concerns – existential national security concerns, which cannot be reduced in this discussion.”

Egypt and Jordan say no

On Wednesday, the President of Egypt, Abdel Fateh Al -Sisi, stressed strongly that Egypt will not participate in any campaign to remove the Palestinians from Gaza, noting “injustice” from displacement as well as Egyptian security.

“I want to assure the Egyptian people that indulgence or enabling national security violations in Egypt will not be allowed,” he said.

Al -Sisi added that if he is considering accepting the Palestinian displacement, the Egyptian people will go to the streets to warn him of this step.

He said, “I say clearly: The displacement of the Palestinian people from their land is an injustice that we will not participate in,” he said.

Jordan chanted this position, as Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said that the position of the Hashemitte Kingdom is “irreversible and no change.”

While Trump has gained a reputation in other countries arming to other countries, analysts say Egypt and Jordan have decisive interests that would make acceptance of the displaced from Gaza not.

Both governments are afraid of a violent reaction from its residents, which will consider any role in ethnic cleansing as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, which is still a central issue in the region.

Moreover, the flow of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, including thousands of fighters suffering from fighting, can destabilize the political, economic and security structures in Egypt and Jordan.

Nancy Okayel, head of the International Policy Center, a US -based research center, said Trump’s comments do not seem to be based on any real strategy.

“The Egyptian government, especially President Sisi, was very clear and very firm that this is not overcome; it is a red line.” There is no way to be accepted. “

She added that Trump, who is a self -described deals maker, may try to use the path of carrots and specifications to persuade Egypt to accept the Palestinians from Gaza, but Sisi will not enjoy the idea.

First of all, it is a problem with the capacity. It is also a legal issue. More importantly, it represents a direct threat to the stability of the country. “

Anil Shelin, a research colleague at the Queens Institute for Responsible Construction, said that Jordan is facing similar issues with collective displacement.

While people “should be concerned” about Trump’s proposal, Shelin said that the American president “may not have fully thought about the repercussions of” this policy for Jordan and the entire region.

“It is crazy because I hear this a lot, and people say:” Why don’t other countries take it, or why don’t they leave? “Well, why does Israel not stop trying to kill them? This is the real question.”

Trump statement

The repercussions started on Saturday when Trump amazed the Middle East with a clear invitation to transfer Gaza residents from the devastating tape.

“I would like Egypt to take people, and I would like Jordan to take people,” Trump said.

He justified his proposal to describe the destruction in Gaza, more than a year after the incomplete Israeli bombing.

“It is literally a demolition site now. Trump said:“ Almost everything is demolished, and people die there. ”Therefore, I prefer engaging in some Arab countries and building housing in a different location, where they can live in peace for change.

He said that displacement could be temporary or “long -term”.

Despite the reverse reaction, Trump doubled his proposal on Monday, claiming that he had spoken to Sisi about this.

“I hope some (the Palestinians) will take,” Trump said. “We helped them a lot, and I am sure it will help us.”

Egypt is the best recipient of American aid. But the White House nor the Egyptian presidency does not release the supposed invitation between Trump and Sisi.

For us “unrestricted” under the law

Trump’s statements indicate a reflection of his predecessor Joe Biden’s declared policy of refusing the permanent removal of the Palestinians from Gaza.

However, in October 2023, early on the war, a funding application under Biden was offered the possibility of mass exodus.

A message at the White House to Congress has proposed assistance to Israel, “You will support the displaced and conflict civilians, including Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank” and “meet the potential needs of the invasion that flee to neighboring countries.”

Shelin said that in a “alternative world” where the Arab countries had agreed to take the displaced Palestinians, the Biden administration had supported the collective removal of the population from Gaza.

“International law has neither the United States nor Israel when it came to the Palestinians – especially under the previous administration, said.”

She noted that American laws require the country to cut military aid to countries that commit human rights violations.

“Under Biden, it was clear that he had no intention to comply with international or American laws that required the United States to cut security assistance to Israel.”

Ethnic cleansing can be considered a war crime and a crime against humanity – and critics say that Trump’s proposal appears to be suitable for description.

In 1994, United Nations experts defined ethnic cleansing as “a purposeful policy designed by an ethnic or religious group to remove through violence and dread, which means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographical areas.”

Israeli Finance Minister Bezallil Smotrich welcomed Trump’s comments on Monday, saying that he was working with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rest of the cabinet “to prepare an operational plan and ensure that President Trump’s vision is achieved.”

Monair said that Israel showed that it wanted to separate from Gaza.

He said: “It is one thing to carry out ethnic cleansing by sending trucks and loading people and then forcing them to go out at gunpoint.”

“There is another way to do this and it is simply destroying everything there, making it uninterrupted, and then imposing the issue mainly by making life there impossible. I think this was a goal from the Israelis all the time.”

Gaza’s future

Monayer stressed that the rebuilding of Gaza requires a political will and a permanent ceasefire, not the displacement of its residents.

“People there were all over the genocide,” he said. “They are not in a greater danger of death now after the bombs stopped down on them. It is far from an ideal situation. But if you really want to start reconstruction and provide temporary housing, shelter and facilities for these people during the reconstruction, it is not like going to Mars. “

Gaza is still in the first stage of the armistice, which started on January 19 and will last 42 days. The future of the region, including reconstruction plans, will not be completed, up to the second and third parts of the deal.

But the main questions remain about whoever rules Gaza. Israel and the United States said they would not allow Hamas to remain in power.

Last month, then the director of the state, Anthony Blinkin, presented a “day after day” plan to Gaza, a minor.

However, it is not clear whether Hamas was accepting foreign forces in Gaza. Moreover, Netanyahu has repeatedly refused to hand over the region to the Palestinian Authority, despite its close security coordination with the Israeli forces in the West Bank.

Okayel said that the Palestinian voices are missing from the conversation about the future of Gaza, stressing that the issue of those who govern the Palestinian territories should not be dictated by the United States, Israel or regional powers.

“Without resistance and dictating whoever rules and running for the elections, the Palestinians have an opportunity.” They have the will and they have the ability to participate in a political process. “