The labor market suffers, but today’s job data seems just Khokhi

Over the past few weeks, there has been a major disturbance in the labor market as President Donald Trump’s administration moved to freeze federal aid and lay off tens of thousands of federal workers. This is in addition to a wave of executive orders, threats of commercial wars, the beginning of mass deportations and stock market fluctuations.

But Friday, Work Statistics Office What investors and market scenes considered the “positive” job report for January. This separation made me scratch my head.

One of the explanations is that the backward -appearance economic data: Friday’s labor market report reflects the status of the relative chaos. However, I expected that there would be at least some effect of destroyed forest fires, which I saw Hundreds of thousands California residents are applying for unemployment advantages.

Instead, more Last work data Unemployment appears low and fixed, at 4 %. In addition, job growth is still apparently moving at a healthy pace.

Perhaps the official work data is not a reliable narrator of what is happening, nor what will come.

Lisa Contran-CaraoseThe CEO of JVS Bay, a non -profit organization for the development of the workforce, said that there is no doubt that the actions of the new administration will lead to instability for both workers and employers, with consequences that will rush through industries in 2025.

A business market is likely to be volatile

Labor market indicators draw a wide picture and reflect the previous trends, but they do not accurately reflect the economic facts of various fields, population or industries.

As a person who writes about the relationship between the work data, the housing market and the federal reserve, I was not surprised to see economists in a positive way on Friday. News reports decided that the economy is “flexible” and “strong” and that the labor market “cannot be better.”

However, ask the average person about finding a stable work and good payment, and you are likely to get a completely different answer. In 2024, Pathrise market data shows that job seekers are on average Eight months And 294 requests for decline.

It is not an exaggeration to say that the economy feels like a free fall. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately ordered It stopped 90 days on external aidThe defended by Elon Musk, left many government contractors and international agencies that are struggling to work or even pay their workers. At the same time, some 65000 Federal workers accepted an offer to resign for the payment until September 30. The White House said it hopes to share up to 200,000 workers in AcquisitionAnd recently suspended by a federal judge.

Moreover, Trump takes aggressive measures to increase the deportation of immigrants who have no documents, and who form almost 1 out of 20 workersWith more representation in construction, agriculture and hospitality. The forced removal of the masses of workers, who contribute billions of dollars in government and federal taxes, can lead to vacancies of low -wage jobs, high labor costs, supply chain disorders and increase inflation.

“The president has turned politics several times,” said Jin Ludwig, a former currency financial observer and its founder. Ludwig Institute for joint economic prosperity.

Ludwig told me in an email: “It is too early to measure the net impact of his employment policies.”

Uplast price discounts will not come up to a later time

Economic data, such as the job report on Friday, also affects major cash decisions, such as modifying interest rates. The Federal Reserve needs a balance between inflation and unemployment, and examines official statistics to determine its next step.

First, the central bank wants to see inflation slows down before reducing interest rates again. But this does not seem like any time soon, given the threat of definitions, which are expected to rise.

Second, the Federal Reserve is looking for signs of weakness in the labor market. Although the Federal Reserve does not want to dive unemployment levels to recession, the “proper” labor market tells the central bank that the economy can afford high borrowing rates.

The difficulties were Already In order for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at its next meeting in March. But now more clearly that the central bank will delay the cuts until May or June as soon as possible. It may take months to get a clear picture of how management policies affect the job market, consumer prices and borrowing cost.

Any indicator explaining the slow economy of price reduction opportunities, especially increasing unemployment, said. Greg HeimBraun’s chief economist Harris Stevens.

Meanwhile, we will only have to settle different definitions of a positive report on jobs.

“The strong labor market depends on expanding the chances of job seekers, not their restriction,” said Conotre Man Kearz.